Europe’s 2028 Switchgear Gas Ban Would Leave Grid Operators One EU-Based Supplier
Three member states have asked the EU to pause a 2028 gas ban that, on the Council’s own account, would bar a fluoronitrile switchgear route and leave one EU-based dry-air supplier. Exposed: transmission operators, lenders and switchgear makers through 2032.
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The phase-out of SF6 (sulphur hexafluoride, a potent greenhouse gas that insulates high-voltage switchgear) is usually read as settled, with alternatives on sale. Beneath that sits a legal snag. A Council note says the fluoronitrile-based device it examines is “currently non-compliant” under the F-gas Regulation, the EU law restricting fluorinated greenhouse gases, whose bans arrive in 2028 (Council note, 24/06/2026). The lawful route, dry air with vacuum switching, has one EU-based supplier, and its capacity is below European demand (Council note, 24/06/2026). Italy, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have asked to stop the clock. Transmission owners placing orders now are buying against a rule that may change before their bays are energised, and should price that exposure into contracts.
Signal Identification
A regulatory pivot in progress, not a technology gap. SF6-free equipment exists up to 420 kV; what is unresolved is which of it may be installed after 2028, a legal date set before lawful capacity existed.
What's Changing
The Council’s own paper sets out the collision. The F-gas Regulation’s bans “come into force in 2028”, with 2032 for high-voltage, and the fluoronitrile device it examines, which has a lower life-cycle impact than dry air and vacuum, is “currently non-compliant” (Council note, 24/06/2026). “The EU market today consists of 2 EU-based suppliers of fluoronitrile solutions and 1 EU-based supplier of dry-air solutions”; if fluoronitrile goes, “only one manufacturer of dry-air solutions remains with a manufacturing capacity lower than the European demand” (Council note, 24/06/2026).
Italy, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic “informed ministers about high-voltage switchgear” on 25 June (Council of the EU, 25/06/2026) and ask for a stop-the-clock provision “in the Omnibus package or the Grid package” (Council note, 24/06/2026). The page records an information point, not a decision.
Suppliers keep selling. Hitachi Energy says “more than 4,000 EconiQ units have been ordered by customers in 40 countries”, including a TenneT Germany 420 kV breaker (T&D World, 24/08/2026), and GE Vernova’s 170 kV unit is “available for order now, manufactured in Europe” (Energies Media, 31/08/2026). Neither report names the insulation gas. The dry-air 420 kV reference is a pilot at Elia’s Vilvoorde substation running to September 2028 (Siemens Energy project page, 05/08/2026), against a €51bn Siemens Energy grid backlog (Siemens Energy earnings release, 05/08/2026).
Two routes to SF6-free, one supplier for the lawful one
Source basis: Council note (24/06/2026); Siemens Energy LIFE Blue project page (05/08/2026).
Disruption Pathway
This report’s reading is that the pathway runs in three stages. Through 2027, orders continue under legal ambiguity, because waiting means queueing behind a €51bn grid backlog (Siemens Energy earnings release, 05/08/2026). In 2027 and 2028 the Commission answers or stays silent: a stop-the-clock keeps fluoronitrile lawful; silence steers 2028 orders to the one EU dry-air maker and non-EU entrants; a study-first route pushes the decision past the date. By 2032 the installed base is a mixed or single-route fleet, and the high-voltage date repeats the test.
Stress concentrates in three places: bay orders signed now whose gas may be barred after 2028; dry-air capacity the note puts below demand; and the 420 kV dry-air reference bay, not due before the Elia project ends in September 2028 (Siemens Energy project page, 05/08/2026). Compact equipment without higher gas pressure “remains one of the industry's main technical challenges” (SuperGrid Institute, 24/09/2026). Two adaptations follow: operators should write gas-change and re-permitting clauses into frame agreements, and regulators should treat a compliance-driven re-specification as a recoverable capital cost.
Why This Matters Now
Boards and CFOs of transmission owners, and the regulators who approve their capital plans, hold this decision. On this report’s reading, bays ordered from 2027 will mostly be commissioned after the 2028 date, so the insulation gas is a legal exposure fixed at signing and tested later. Frame agreements that fix a gas, capital allowances with no re-opener for a change of rule, and adequacy plans that assume contracted delivery dates all presume the phase-out is settled. At high voltage it is not. Lenders to offshore wind and interconnector projects carry the same exposure. Keep ordering, make the gas type a named and priced term, and set a commitment trigger on the Commission’s response.
Decision-action posture for this signal: Prepare — orders can proceed on named gas terms, while commitment to a single route should wait for the Commission’s answer on the stop-the-clock request.
Counter-Argument
The strongest objection is that this is a lobbying position, not a legal reality. Three delegations wrote the note, the Council page records an information point, and buyers are voting with orders: more than 4,000 EconiQ units in 40 countries (T&D World, 24/08/2026) and “installations operating up to 420 kV and even 550 kV” shown at CIGRE 2026 (SuperGrid Institute, 24/09/2026). Siemens Energy says growth “was supported by expanded production capacities” (Siemens Energy earnings release, 05/08/2026), so dry-air capacity may close the gap without any rule change.
The signal survives that objection. The note puts today’s dry-air capacity below demand (Council note, 24/06/2026), the 420 kV dry-air reference bay is not due before September 2028 (Siemens Energy project page, 05/08/2026), and neither vendor report says which ordered units use fluoronitrile. The exposure is the gap between the legal date and lawful capacity, and it sits with buyers whichever way the Commission decides.
Implications
This is durable change, not a passing dispute: the dates sit in the regulation, the equipment lasts decades, and the 24 June note is the clearest statement of the supply position (Council note, 24/06/2026). The inflection window is the Commission’s response, then the 2028 order round. If fluoronitrile is barred, the one EU dry-air maker and non-EU entrants gain; if the clock stops, fluoronitrile suppliers and early buyers gain. Operators whose contracts fix both the gas and the price lose in either case.
Early Indicators to Monitor
- A Commission proposal in the Omnibus or Grid package carrying a stop-the-clock or derogation for fluoronitrile-based switchgear.
- Launch of the ESPR preparatory study on high-voltage switchgear, or Commission use of IEC TS 62271-320:2025 as the life-cycle comparison method.
- Council items or written questions on switchgear from member states beyond Italy, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic.
- Transmission operator tenders adding gas-change or re-permitting clauses to high-voltage switchgear frame agreements.
- A dry-air maker announcing added high-voltage capacity, or a non-EU supplier winning its first EU transmission order.
Disconfirming Signals
- The Commission confirms in writing that the 2028 bans stand, and dry-air makers publish delivery slots meeting European demand.
- A second EU-based dry-air supplier announces high-voltage production.
- The Elia Vilvoorde 420 kV clean-air bay is commissioned well before the September 2028 project end.
- Vendors state that the SF6-free units on order use gas mixtures compliant with the 2028 text.
- Siemens Energy’s Grid Technologies book-to-bill falls below 1.0 for two quarters.
Strategic Questions
- Do we keep ordering SF6-free bays with a gas-change clause, or hold orders until the Commission answers?
- Which of our contracted bays use fluoronitrile, and who carries the cost if 2028 makes them unlawful to install?
- Should we reserve dry-air delivery slots now as a hedge, accepting a premium?
- Can our regulator agree, before we sign, that a legal re-specification is a recoverable capital cost?
Keywords
SF6-free switchgear; F-gas Regulation 2024/573; fluoronitrile; dry air and vacuum switching; stop the clock; high-voltage gas-insulated switchgear; grid equipment supply chain; Environment Council; Omnibus package; Grid package; ESPR; procurement risk
Bibliography
Source tiers: Tier 1, governments, regulators and intergovernmental bodies. Tier 2, think-tanks, academic institutes, major consultancies and quality data providers. Tier 3, quality journalism and specialist trade press. Tier 4, vendor, company and practitioner sources, used only as directional corroboration.
- Tier 1 High-voltage switchgear note for the Environment Council, 10693/1/26 REV 1. Council of the European Union (24/06/2026).
- Tier 1 Environment Council, 25 June 2026 (meeting page). Council of the European Union (25/06/2026).
- Tier 1 Earnings Release Q3 FY 2026. Siemens Energy (05/08/2026).
- Tier 2 SF6 replacement: regulatory pressure and deployment challenges. SuperGrid Institute (24/09/2026).
- Tier 3 Hitachi Energy Expands SF6-Free Switchgear Portfolio at CIGRE 2026. T&D World (24/08/2026).
- Tier 3 GE Vernova completes its SF6-free switchgear range with a 170 kV launch at CIGRE Paris 2026. Energies Media (31/08/2026).
- Tier 4 LIFE Blue 420 kV GIS project page. Siemens Energy (05/08/2026).